A Catastrophic Blow to Putin

Eric and Eliot discuss the rapidly unfolding events in Syria and examine the causes and consequences of the collapse of Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria. They discuss the big winners (Turkey, Israel, the Syrian people and to a lesser extent the U.S) and the big losers (notably Russia and especially Iran). They discuss the timing of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham offensive, how to interpret the claims of HTS leader abu Mohammed al Jolani that the group has moderated, the prospects for Russia maintaining its Khmeimim Air Base and its naval base at Tartus, as well as the future of Iranian national security policy. In particular, they discuss whether the Iranians will have incentives to sprint to a nuclear weapon or whether they will temporize and seek to embroil the incoming Trump administration in an endless negotiation over the nuclear program. They discuss the Biden Administration's efforts to polish its reputation in the aftermath of recent events and the waxing and waning of leadership reputations including former President Barack Obama and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They consider what effect events in Syria might have on Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine. They also touch on listener criticisms that calling for greater defense spending seems out of touch with today's American political scene. They consider the results of the recent Reagan National Defense Forum survey and the light those results shed on the question of public support for stronger national defense.

Eliot's latest pieces in the Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/khamenei-iran-syria/680920/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/european-troops-ukraine-war/680928/

Eric & David Kramer's latest in Politico:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/06/trump-ukraine-better-foreign-policy-00192415

Reagan Foundation Study on Public Perception of Defense Spending:
https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/363274/rndf-survey-nov-2024-memo.pdf

Financial Times Retrospectives on Angela Merkel:
https://www.ft.com/content/0a538c85-27fb-400e-ae8b-f13fb6ce4e72

https://www.ft.com/content/e82af5d9-32ea-444e-93e2-9e457d6a6796

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.