This episode focuses on the best upcoming game in the NFL - Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears. The match is due to take place on the 6th October 2024.

Current data points to this game trending towards the Over on total points.

Since September 25, 2016, teams playing in conference games as home favorites with lines smaller than -5 have gone 233-229-6 Over/Under (50.4%). This trend has been sharper recently, with a 7-1 Over/Under record since September 23, 2024.

When filtering to teams playing on standard rest (6 days), the Over/Under record improves to 113-89-3 (55.9%), including a 3-0 Over/Under last weekend.

Further narrowing to teams coming off a win as home favorites pushes the Over/Under to 18-8 (69.2%), and an even stronger 6-1 Over/Under (85.7%) since the 2022 season.

The obvious conclusion is that when teams play conference games with tight spreads, following a win as a home favorite and on normal rest, it's a strong Over betting scenario. The data overwhelmingly supports a higher likelihood of games exceeding the total under these conditions. 

The Chicago Bears are riding high after a strong home win against the Rams and now face the 1-3 Carolina Panthers, a team that has allowed at least 22 points in each of their four games. However, the Bears are rarely in the favored position.

Since 2020, the Bears have been favored in only 15 of 71 games, making their favorite status this weekend noteworthy. So far, they’ve been favored in both their home games this season, going 2-0 SU (Straight Up) and 2-0 ATS (Against the Spread), scoring exactly 24 points in each contest.

Historically, when favored at home, the Bears perform well. Since 1992, they are 83-43 SU (65.9%) and 69-52-5 Over/Under (57.0%) in conference home games as favorites.

More recently, Chicago is 5-1 Over/Under in this spot since 2022, with the only under coming when both teams were on short rest.

An even rarer scenario is the Bears being home favorites after winning as home favorites the previous week. This has happened just 16 times since 1990, and in those cases, the Bears are 11-5 Over/Under (68.8%), scoring 20+ points in all but three of those games.

When the total is above 40 and the line is less than -5, the Bears' Over/Under record improves to 8-3 (72.7%) and 8-2 (80%), respectively.

Chicago tends to perform well as home favorites, particularly when coming off a win, with a strong tendency to go over the total. Given that the Panthers have allowed 22+ points in every game this season, the Bears are well-positioned to continue that trend and could easily put up at least 22 points this weekend.

The Panthers

The Carolina Panthers have struggled defensively this season, and with rookie QB Bryce Young starting, their offense also lagged. In the first two games with Young, the Panthers scored just 3 and 10 points, respectively. However, since Andy Dalton took over as starting QB, the offense has seen a revival.

With Dalton behind center, the Panthers have gone 2-0 Over/Under, scoring 24+ points in both games. Dalton has been effective, passing for 200+ yards and 2+ touchdowns in each game. Although he's thrown an interception, the Bears' defense has a knack for pick-sixes, which might be an issue for Dalton this weekend but also supports a possible over on the total score.

Carolina has a strong Over/Under record (8-3-1, 72.7%) in conference games as road underdogs, particularly when they lost their previous game as home underdogs, and both teams are playing on standard rest (6 days).

Given that the Bears have allowed 17+ points in every game this season, Dalton should be able to capitalize, even if he doesn't replicate his 319-yard, 3-touchdown performance against Las Vegas. Last weekend, Chicago's defense gave up 224 yards to Matthew Stafford, presenting a reasonable opportunity for Dalton to put up points.

What do previous games between the two sides tell us?

Chicago has been a home favorite against Carolina four times, going 3-1 Over/Under. The only under came when both teams were on short rest. The other three games totaled at least 55 points, with the Bears winning all three straight up but failing to cover the spread.

This trend suggests we could see another high-scoring game this weekend, with the Panthers' shaky defense and Dalton's ability to keep the offense productive. Expect points from both sides.

You can read further match analysis at the crypto sports betting site at GOSUBetting.com for the bet most likely to get a positive return on this game.