QROT-123: Archival - Actual Mortality Rate
Jul 05, 03:01 AM
(Here and there I will be translating my old videos into podcast form. This is one from August of 2020.)
BLASTED. Easy and Solid Math as of 8/6/20 Shows Stuvid-20 Mortality Rate is Estimated in Range of Flu and Not in Range of Early Scare-Tactic Numbers.
Audio of video, along with stops so I can explain context.
0:00 Intro
1:09 Initial audio from video
1:44 Total deaths from Coronavirus, from Worldometer website. 712,236.
But we are not given what would be the denominator for the mortality rate formula. We have confirmed cases, but not an estimate of total infected. (Mortality rate would be DEATHS / INFECTED)
2:32 To start to piece together getting to a sensible denominator, we can use data from flu. A health.com article doesn't give us infected, but does give us total deaths worldwide from flu: 290,000 to 650,000.
(Because we know of techniques resulting in overcounting for Covid, we select the high estimate (650K) here for use of comparison.)
Intermediate comparative observation (but still separate from final math): 650K annually for flu seasons that are about six months... versus 712,236 after over five months of the "much deadlier" Covid. So where are the "ten-time-as-deadly" results, when Covid is also allegedly much more infectious (yes, some lockdown, but if ten times as infectious, should this not make up for it?).
4:15 Flu mortality reference: 0.1% (1 out of each 1,000 infected), from the health.com article. Straight quote from Demon "Fear-ci" Fauci.
5:24 More of why it makes sense for denominator in formula (number infected) to be high - articles on how many people are asymptomatic (so with NO symptoms, that segment is not likely to be a confirmed case). A Digital Journal article, referencing an Italian study of over 5,000 people, saying 73.9% of infected have ZERO symptoms.
7:11 So still working CDC.gov seasonal flu dashboard. This is for comparison of how many infected in the US just by flu (to get a sense of seeming proper range of infected worldwide by flu, and by approximation, Covid).
39M to 56M.
U.S. is just short of 1/20 of the world population. So, while this is too high (not every part of the world is in flu environments), the approximation for total world flu infections would be 20 times the U.S. infected, so 780M, to 1.12B.
This is a nice "check-our-numbers-against" estimate, but now what we're going with.
8:45 So clearly the worldometer shell-game highlighted number of worldwide confirmed cases (19M) is no approximation of total world cases (since even flu numbers each year is that much and more).
Even using 56M total cases worldwide (when that's how many people get flu just in US) would get us to mortality Fauci estimates (1% of all infected die)
(Written aside: SUCH a fucking liar (if 74 % don't even have symptoms, then how could 1 out of a hundred have such bad symptoms that they die???!! Demon))
9:42 Get to proper denominator. Using flu as our comp
- - - Mortality rate of 0.1% (1 out of every one thousand who get flu die, so therefore if you have the number of deaths, you have the number of infections). We do know the deaths.
650,000 flu deaths times 1,000 equals 650,000,000 infected worldwide (and this is within our range figured earlier (when we went 20x the US amount).
12:24 Running the numbers for mortality with our new infected estimate. 712,236 deaths DIVIDED BY 650 million. Result: 0.109574769 PERCENT. More or less 0.110%. Versus 0.100% for flu. Within ten percent. Not ten TIMES.
13:09 Conclusion
BLASTED. Easy and Solid Math as of 8/6/20 Shows Stuvid-20 Mortality Rate is Estimated in Range of Flu and Not in Range of Early Scare-Tactic Numbers.
Audio of video, along with stops so I can explain context.
0:00 Intro
1:09 Initial audio from video
1:44 Total deaths from Coronavirus, from Worldometer website. 712,236.
But we are not given what would be the denominator for the mortality rate formula. We have confirmed cases, but not an estimate of total infected. (Mortality rate would be DEATHS / INFECTED)
2:32 To start to piece together getting to a sensible denominator, we can use data from flu. A health.com article doesn't give us infected, but does give us total deaths worldwide from flu: 290,000 to 650,000.
(Because we know of techniques resulting in overcounting for Covid, we select the high estimate (650K) here for use of comparison.)
Intermediate comparative observation (but still separate from final math): 650K annually for flu seasons that are about six months... versus 712,236 after over five months of the "much deadlier" Covid. So where are the "ten-time-as-deadly" results, when Covid is also allegedly much more infectious (yes, some lockdown, but if ten times as infectious, should this not make up for it?).
4:15 Flu mortality reference: 0.1% (1 out of each 1,000 infected), from the health.com article. Straight quote from Demon "Fear-ci" Fauci.
5:24 More of why it makes sense for denominator in formula (number infected) to be high - articles on how many people are asymptomatic (so with NO symptoms, that segment is not likely to be a confirmed case). A Digital Journal article, referencing an Italian study of over 5,000 people, saying 73.9% of infected have ZERO symptoms.
7:11 So still working CDC.gov seasonal flu dashboard. This is for comparison of how many infected in the US just by flu (to get a sense of seeming proper range of infected worldwide by flu, and by approximation, Covid).
39M to 56M.
U.S. is just short of 1/20 of the world population. So, while this is too high (not every part of the world is in flu environments), the approximation for total world flu infections would be 20 times the U.S. infected, so 780M, to 1.12B.
This is a nice "check-our-numbers-against" estimate, but now what we're going with.
8:45 So clearly the worldometer shell-game highlighted number of worldwide confirmed cases (19M) is no approximation of total world cases (since even flu numbers each year is that much and more).
Even using 56M total cases worldwide (when that's how many people get flu just in US) would get us to mortality Fauci estimates (1% of all infected die)
(Written aside: SUCH a fucking liar (if 74 % don't even have symptoms, then how could 1 out of a hundred have such bad symptoms that they die???!! Demon))
9:42 Get to proper denominator. Using flu as our comp
- - - Mortality rate of 0.1% (1 out of every one thousand who get flu die, so therefore if you have the number of deaths, you have the number of infections). We do know the deaths.
650,000 flu deaths times 1,000 equals 650,000,000 infected worldwide (and this is within our range figured earlier (when we went 20x the US amount).
12:24 Running the numbers for mortality with our new infected estimate. 712,236 deaths DIVIDED BY 650 million. Result: 0.109574769 PERCENT. More or less 0.110%. Versus 0.100% for flu. Within ten percent. Not ten TIMES.
13:09 Conclusion