#Russia: World Bank estimates that Russia''s war economy peaked in 2023 and will decline steeply to 2025. Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.
Jan 11, 01:59 AM
#Russia: World Bank estimates that Russia''s war economy peaked in 2023 and will decline steeply to 2025. Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7a21a380-5c54-4a8d-9c54-22180abb1adb/content
Growth in Russia is projected to slow to 1.3 percent in 2024, and then to 0.9 percent in 2025, near its potential rate. Tightening monetary policy is expected to dampen domestic demand. Trade diversion to China, India, and Türkiye is evident for both exports and imports (figure 2.2.2.B). However, for products affected by sanctions in response to the invasion, the increase in imports from China only offsets about a quarter of the decrease in imports from the European Union (EU) in 2022 (Grekou, Mignon, and Ragot 2023). Capacity constraints, including tight labor market conditions and scarcity of domestic labor due to the invasion, will continue to restrict growth.
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