Oil Man Jim Company Oil & Gas Podcast, 27th November 2019

 

It's been an interesting first half to the week. Regal Petroleum announced that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding to acquire licences in Ukraine with an estimated oil initially in place volume of approximately 675 million barrels.

They intend to appraise the licences with the drilling of up to three wells. Total 3P reserves currently are estimated at 3.89 million barrels of oil equivalent, so this transaction could represent a very significant uplift. Generally, I'm cautious about companies operating in the former Soviet Union, but this now is one to keep an eye on.

Cluff Natural Resources announced that it has submitted multiple applications for additional licences in the latest 32nd UK Offshore Licensing Round. Interestingly, one has been made jointly with an established international operator (I would guess Shell).

The blocks applied for containing a number of drilled discoveries, undrilled prospects and leads and will create a strong pipeline of future drilling opportunities. They say they're making significant progress on the existing portfolio, in particular, the licences which Shell farmed into earlier this year, and they're now working towards a firm well commitment on Selene and Pensacola.

With a £19 million market cap and a £15 million fundraising completed over 30% higher than the current 1.325p share price, it's certainly one for the watch list. Their farm-out process on the Dewar prospect has generated significant interest and the announcement of the completion of this could act as a catalyst.

PetroTal announced a drilling and production update, providing an increased 2019 exit oil production rate of 11,000 - 13,000 barrels a day. This is the first-ever forward-looking "jam tomorrow" RNS that the company has issued and one has to ask why now?

Independent Oil & Gas announced that henceforth it will be known simply as IOG. The aim is to have a new identity and hopefully put behind controversial associations of the past. It's another one to keep an eye on and once the many loose shares in issue have found more permanent homes, it should start to work its way higher.

I3 Energy announced another disappointing well result, but many obviously knew about it in advance of the market. This one is a rigged deck and unless you're an experienced trader I would suggest leaving it alone now.

Finally, Petrel Resources continues its remarkable journey higher, hitting 21p yesterday, up 2,000%. I highlighted this and stated it as favourite several times recently at around 1p (see https://oilmanjim.blogspot.com and numerous posts on Twitter). More like this in the private blog.

Moving on to the subject of making money in the markets, last time I broadly described the five main groups on social media. To summarise:

First, those with good market knowledge, who have no particular agenda, but enjoy commenting and stating their opinions. This is the group you should try to follow. They do not depend on you buying the shares they mention.

Second, those with good market knowledge, who do have an agenda, but this agenda is possibly only visible to the first group. These ones are very dangerous for your pocket. They will try to inveigle you into buying shares that result in a direct financial reward for them, either by selling you their shares at a higher price than the price at which they bought them, or because they are being paid to promote the stock. Needless to say, these shares are rarely the best.

Third, those with limited market knowledge, but no agenda. Harmless, but they're generally just repeating the views of the first and second groups without discernment, although when they repeat the misrepresentations of group two, that's usually in good faith. They are generally unable to see the difference between groups one and two.

Fourth, those with limited market knowledge, but an agenda. Group two hanger ons, or subalterns, they're minor pumpers and promoters, who become unpleasant when their line is challenged. They have no answers or proper responses (there are none if the stock is a scam), since this group have no actual knowledge, and generally (like group 2 in most cases) they have to resort to ad hominem attacks.

Fifth, those with no market knowledge, who are seduced by the promises and misrepresentations of groups two and four. This is the largest group and feeds groups two and four.

If you're on social media to make money, then the first objective should be to eliminate groups 2 and 4 from your timeline. They're very easy to spot even with no finance/technical experience or knowledge since they have a very clear "tell" which is their inability to answer questions or defend their argument. They simply respond by abusing and insulting anyone challenging - and then post insulting gifs. What they never do is address the actual argument. They ignore the point being made and deflect. Look out for this

To have a clean timeline with genuine stock ideas, it's essential to block these people, otherwise, the constant repetitive posts from them and their aliases can gull you into buying a bad stock. Some are just ignorant, but their comments and opinions are worthless and distracting so it's best just to block them too.

You'll see their modus operandi clearly when someone asks a difficult question, but instead of answering, they ridicule and insult the questioner, posting offensive gifs. Groups of them descend (often just multi accounts of one person) to drown the questioner out. Block the lot of them, you don't want them on your timeline drumming their dodgy symbols into you and making you think that with so many mentioning the stock it must be good. Block scammers ruthlessly and remove them from your timeline, otherwise, their drip, drip, drip of a bad stock idea can lull you into buying it.

Once these people are blocked, you'll have a timeline that while not necessarily the best informed at least is no longer malicious and not full of posters looking to steal your money. I'll move on to part 4 at the weekend when I'll discuss how to follow those who offer meaningful and beneficial input that might actually make you money.

If you're interested in knowing my actual trading ideas and want to read a more critical assessment of some of these companies, then subscribe to the private blog at https://www.oilnewslondon.com/oilman-jim The link is also on my Twitter profile page.