Oil Man Jim Company Oil & Gas Podcast, 24th November 2019

 

The interesting second half to the week. Petrel Resources (PET) announced that the issue of new shares to friends and business acquaintances of the new control parties has been approved.

It is anticipated that a flow of potential investment proposals now will be offered to the company. I suggested Petrel and stated it as favourite numerous times around 1p earlier this year (see https://oilmanjim.blogspot.com and numerous posts on Twitter) and it closed at 8.75p yesterday, up 775%. There are more shares with this sort of potential in the private blog.

James Parson's "Holy Trinity" had a busy week. Echo Energy (ECHO) announced the commencement of drilling of the CLM x-1 well. This is the first of an expected four-well exploration drilling programme. It's expected to take approximately four weeks, plus a further five to six weeks if logging supports completion. Maybe, at last, they will have success, but so far at ECHO it's been the only failure. Now 2.95p, it's down from 17p . Coro Energy ( CORO) updated on operations at the Tambak-1 well. This was designed to both appraise the Mako gas field and test the underlying Tambak prospect. Appraisal success was a given, but the exploration failed and the shares fell to 2.2p. Sound Energy (SOU) had earlier in the week announced the approval of the environmental impact assessment for a 2D seismic acquisition programme, but the directors' hearts simply are no longer in it.

None of their names was stated anymore in the RNS and the only contact for the company was an email address. I've been critical about all three companies for some time and have been calling SOU down since last year when the price of their so-called "golden tickets" was over 10 times higher (again see https://oilmanjim.blogspot.com and posts on Twitter) , but it still has a market cap of nearly £40 million and plenty of room to fall further .

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (ECO) recognised the market reaction to their last announcement on the oil quality discovered at Jethro and Joe, and the partners are considering alternatives for further drilling and testing. Crucial will be the further update on the partners' drilling plans for next year to be made in January 2020. I stated ECO as a favourite several times around 80p (see yet again https://oilmanjim.blogspot.com and posts on Twitter) and it subsequently went to nearly £2. ECO is a prime example of why you should never fully believe any of these companies - and always take profits or de-risk. This is a permanent statement in the blog and I really can't emphasise the importance of this enough.

For those who like a gamble (and prefer to ignore what I'm about to say below), Hurricane Energy (HUR) announced the commencement of drill stem testing on the Warwick West well. They will provide an update on initial results of the well, including flow rates and oil type, following completion of this test. Rumour is that they’ve a hit a huge pay zone and odds of a successful test are probably better than evens. Currently, 44.34p, parameters to look at are a 52 week low of 37.84p and a high of 64.5p. UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) too is currently testing, in its case an extended well test of HH-2z. I feel sure they're going to have lots of positive announcements to put out.

Moving on to the subject of making money in the markets, on Wednesday I detailed some of the changes which have come about with advent of social media and concluded with five main points:

First, know where the company is in its operational, financing and promotional cycle. Understanding that unlocks the door to market success, since by entering at the right point you'll always be buying into upward moves. And this is key.

Second, only go for the certainties, even if that just means just 10 or so trades a year. Profits are worth nothing is they're wiped out by losses, the losses have to be eliminated.

One of the most important lessons is that it is not just about the shares you buy, even more importantly it's about the shares you don't buy. You need to control yourself and go only for the certainties, the small number of winners each year that are virtually guaranteed. Only buy when you're absolutely certain and don't let it bother you if you miss a few.

Third, conviction. You must have that so you don't get shaken out of the position.

Fourth, position sizing. No position must be so large that it stops you sleeping at night and fear shakes you out. Choose a position size where even if it goes to zero, you won't be too badly hurt.

Fifth, always de-risk as the price rises, or take profits completely. End upholding the position for free and ride it if you want, but remember that ultimately, these companies' business projects usually fail.

Now, although it's enjoyable and interesting to participate, social media isn't going to help you much with any of above, but since it's such a big source of information for people now, let's stay with the subject for the moment.

I think that anyone new to the market who joins Twitter must find it quite daunting. Thousands of unknown stock symbols and tens of thousands of unknown people (or perhaps let's say accounts) commenting on them. They've no idea who even to follow and no idea at this stage whether their comments are bona fide or bogus. I'm not going to name any names here (that's for the private blog), but it might be useful to broadly describe the various different groups.

First, those with good market knowledge, who have no particular agenda, but enjoy commenting and stating their opinions. This is the group you should try to follow. They do not depend on you buying the shares they mention.

Second, those with good market knowledge, who do have an agenda, but this agenda is possibly only visible to the first group. These ones are very dangerous for your pocket. They will try to inveigle you into buying shares that result in a direct financial reward for them, either by selling you their shares at a higher price than the price at which they bought them, or because they are being paid to promote the stock. Needless to say, these shares are rarely the best.

Third, those with limited market knowledge, but no agenda. Harmless, but they're generally just repeating the views of the first and second groups without discernment, although when they repeat the misrepresentations of group two, that's usually in good faith. They are generally unable to see the difference between groups one and two.

Fourth, those with limited market knowledge, but an agenda. Group two hanger ons, or subalterns, they're minor pumpers and promoters, who become unpleasant when their line is challenged. They have no answers or proper responses, since they have no actual knowledge, and generally they have to resort to ad hominem attacks.

Fifth, those with no market knowledge, who are seduced by the promises and misrepresentations of groups two and four. This is the largest group and feeds groups two and four.

The most money is made by groups one and two, although group one probably sleeps better at night. Group three hovers around break even. Group four makes a little money, but no huge rewards. Group five lose most of their cash quite quickly.

If you do just want tips, then you need to make sure it's only the people in group one you're following and ignore completely the other four groups. The problem you've got is that all you're going to get is a throwaway line with none of the detailed reasoning and without that you're not going to know why you hold the share other than because someone else does and you're not going to have the essential conviction needed to hold and not be shaken out.

I'll move on to the third part next week when as usual there will be a mid-week podcast and both a podcast and a blog at the weekend. If you're interested in knowing my actual trading ideas and want to read a more critical assessment of some of these and other companies, then subscribe to the private blog at https://www.oilnewslondon.com/oilman-jim