Major market forecasts: Brent oil, DAX and USD/JPY – Oanda

Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at Oanda presents technical view backed by fundamental rationale for major markets – Brent oil, DAX, USD/JPY. Erlam also talks about BOE governor Carney’s appears before authorities on Tuesday and details the politicisation of the QE/low rates.

Key points

Brent oil – Prices dropped this week on fading prospects of OPEC deal, given that Iraq has asked for exemption from output cut deal. Surge in US oil inventories as reported by API further weighed over oil prices. Erlam believes $45-50/barrel us a fair value till we have confirmation and evidence of OPEC production cut/freeze. He adds that price forecasts of $60 doing rounds are based on assumption of OPEC output cut and a relatively less increase in non-OPEC supply

DAX – Mir questions whether the daily chart shows triple top formation. Erlam feels the index like other major indices – FTSE 100, S&P 500, and Dow is looking toppy

USD/JPY – “Question is what could drive the pair higher to 107.00-107.50”, says Erlam, while adding further that he is not expecting anything from next week’s BOJ rate decision.

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