Today's stock and macro update: Global macro-backdrop is deflationary, biggest IPO this year from Japan

Nick Batsford, CEO of Tip TV, was joined by Zak Mir, technical analyst of Zak’s Traders Café, and Mike Ingram, Strategist for BGC Partners, to open the Tip TV Finance Show in order to discuss deflation in the UK, the Japan Post data released, as well as a focus on a US rate hike and a Stock Outlook.

US ADP and ISM non-manufacturing

Batsford highlighted FX Street, who outlined that the USD rallied as consensus seems to be building that the Federal Reserve may take a baby step of 10-12 bps in December. Key for a Fed interest rate hike is employment and wage growth, and they noted that employment in manufacturing was at its weakest since August 2009, meanwhile, ISM non-manufacturing focus will be on the employment sub index and the US ADP is often ignored ahead of non-farm payrolls if the figure released is indeed weak.

Deflation in the UK?

Ingram commented that the macro-backdrop in the global economy is deflationary, with price transparency and promotions well before events like Black Friday, which Amazon have begun 3 weeks before the sale, causing these lower prices. Batsford continued to Elliott, who expressed that data this morning from the British Retail Consortium showed that deflation is well and truly here, with prices falling on an annualised basis for a 30th consecutive month. Contributing to the 1.8% drop were food, down 0.4%, fresh food, down 1%, while clothing shed 2.7%. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, noted that not only were retailers gearing up for the key Christmas period but would have to deal with higher wages and business rates next year, plus the apprenticeship levy.

Stock Outlook

Mir outlined that M&S profits were down 24%, with its share price through the roof, and a gap through the 200-DMA towards 550.

In terms of RBS, he continued that it has a higher low which is encouraging, but needs to break 330 to move higher.

Producing a specialist one-off product has led to a 550 target whilst above 450 for FEVR, according to Mir.

Watch the video for more analysis on Germany’s DAX, as well as IOG, FBT WEIR, ABF and AAL.

Japan Post the biggest of the year

Batsford finished with Elliott, who believed that this year’s biggest IPO, Japan Post, set off a smouldering pace this morning in Tokyo. Priced at the higher end of its expected range, Japan Post Holdings rose 15%, Japan Post Bank 15.9% and Japan Post Insurance an eye-watering 50%. The government sold 11% stakes in each of these companies for a total of $11.5 billion.

Tags: USD, US, Fed, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Rate Hike, Employment, ISM no-manufacturing, US ADP, non-farm payroll, deflation, price transparency, Black Friday, British Retail Consortium, higher living wage, M&S, RBS, FEVR, Japan Post, IPO, Tokyo, Japan